Financially, 2023 was not an easy year for the biotech sector, that faced some significant challenges including high interest rates in the United States and an overall decline in revenue (heavily affected by the sharp decline in vaccine sales against Covid-19).
The fall of vaccines
This was revealed by the EY Biotechnology Report 2024, according to which the turnover of biotechnology companies listed in the United States and Europe decreased by 10.7% compared to 2022, falling to 191.9 billion dollars. Net income fell $12.9 billion, or 43.4%, slipping into negative territory. The data is mainly affected by the negative results of vaccine producers, who suffered a setback after having benefited in recent years from the anomalous wave due to the pandemic: the revenues attributed to Covid-19 in 2023 represent only 5.2 % of total revenues (they were 15% in 2021).
Who goes up & Who goes down
The ones who pay the price are above all the well-known names, particularly active in the pandemic period, whose results are dragging the sector down. BioNTech, for example, recorded a drop in revenue of 77.2% while Moderna of 64.4% but if these two companies are excluded, biotechnology revenues show a growth of 9.8 billion dollars (+9.4% ). In contrast, some companies delivered extremely strong performances. The Dutch Argenx, for example, exceeded one billion dollars in turnover (1.3 billion) with an increase of 188%, thanks above all to sales of Vyvgart (efgartigimod alfa-fcab), the treatment for myasthenia gravis approved both in the United States and Europe in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Overall, however, the number of publicly traded biotechnology companies in the United States and the European Union decreased by 5.3% in 2023, reflecting a challenging operating environment.
The weight of US interest rates
The repeated increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve also dragged down the performance of the biotechnology market. The central bank of the United States operated eleven increases in a year and a half, reaching 5.5% in July 2023, the highest level in the last 22 years (percentage which remained unchanged until the writing of this article). In the July meeting, however, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, declared “that the time is approaching” for a rate cut, envisaging a change of course which, according to the financial consultant Barbara Ryan, could mark the start of a substantial outperformance of biotech.
Investments slowing down
The containment of the Covid-19 pandemic also affected the funding round. 2023 saw investments in startups slow down with a partial recovery of IPOs (Initial public offering, the first listing of a company on the stock exchange). Also in this case, after the 2021 hype which had pushed some companies to sky-high prices, the market underwent a significant correction, demonstrating a clear shift in investors’ priorities.
Venture capitalists have especially stayed away from early stage companies. While the level of funding remained relatively solid overall, the number and value of investments in the early stages of development (seed, first and second rounds) declined for the second consecutive year. The number of rounds fell 12% to 497, with total value generated of $12.5 billion, down 9% from the previous year.
Signs of clearing
2024 is so far showing some signs of recovery, both because the squeeze on interest rates seems destined to ease, and because the loss of exclusivity for some of the best-selling biological drugs of the last ten years is on the horizon. According to estimates, this could cost big pharma up to $350 billion in the five-year period 2023-28, causing them to urgently seek new pipelines to replace those exiting.
Record M&A
The most immediate way by large-cap companies is that of mergers and acquisitions which, therefore, should see an increase in the coming months. It is therefore not surprising that M&A operations are on track to reach a record pace in 2024. According to a report by the BIA (English Bioindustry Association), in the 1st quarter of 2024 global venture capital investments in the biotech sector rebounded to 4.1 billion pounds (4.9 billion euros, +33% compared to Q1 2023). Of these, 85% (4.2 billion euros) – needless to say – was collected in the USA (2.85 billion in California alone) while Europe put together 437 million euros (+59% compared to 2023).
Behind the US
Among European States, the United Kingdom was the first beneficiary of VC funding in Europe, with 240 million pounds (285 million euros) followed by Germany (150 million euros) and Norway (76 million). China also recorded a positive trend, with £226 million.
However, caution remains: microcaps are finding it increasingly difficult to obtain financing and liquidity reductions, restructurings, mergers and closures will continue in the future. However, analysts say “this is likely a healthy exit from the heady period of excess in 2020 and 2021.”
